← BackErik Miller
SF · LHP · 2024
62.3 IP · 279 BF · 1,243 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
112
Stuff+
95th percentile
109
ABStuff+
97th percentile
107
Pitching+
84th percentile
31.2%
K%
91th percentile
13.3%
BB%
10th percentile
4.22
FIP
64th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.3 IP · 279 BF · 1,243 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+112
95th percentile
ABStuff+109
97th percentile
Whiff%29.0%
86th percentile
CSW%33.6%
47th percentile
Results
Pitching+107
84th percentile
RV/100+0.34
66th percentile
FIP4.22
64th percentile
RA/96.06
19th percentile
GB%51.0%
82th percentile
Command
K%31.2%
91th percentile
BB%13.3%
10th percentile
K-BB%17.9%
75th percentile
Velo90.8
70th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.3 IP · 279 BF · 1,243 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%22.3%
92th percentile
O-Whf%44.0%
60th percentile
Chase%25.0%
24th percentile
Z-Con%77.7%
95th percentile
O-Con%56.0%
60th percentile
SwStr%28.4%
66th percentile
PutAwy%19.8%
73th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.0%
19th percentile
Z-Swg%65.9%
34th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%43.8%
15th percentile
CS%18.6%
30th percentile
F-Str%48.0%
31th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.4/-1.1CH-1.3/-1.9SWring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.39 ft (±0.31)
Side: 1.23 ft (±0.38)
Extension: 6.51 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CH
71
63.4
21.1
12.7
0.0
79.4
-0.6
38.0
FF
61
45.9
34.4
13.1
0.0
83.9
28.9
47.5
SW
21
23.8
33.3
28.6
0.0
77.3
22.9
28.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
2.8
22nd pct
Separation
25.6
94th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
52nd pct
Velo range
13.6 mph
70th pct
FF · CH · SW
2024 season, 1,243 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.28
9th percentile
Where he throws
−0.21
13th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
20th percentile
Heart28.2%
+131.67/100
Shadow38.1%
+152.37/100
Chase23.4%
−280.53/100
Waste10.2%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB10.5%−0.52
shadow · CH14.2%+0.32
heart · FB16.1%+0.31
waste · FB4.4%−0.27
shadow · FB18.5%+0.21
7 other locations−0.32
Total−0.28
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.