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BAL · LHP · 2023
18.7 IP · 81 BF · 371 pitches · 2023 season
MED Descriptive — not a forecast
116
Stuff+
97th percentile
108
ABStuff+
97th percentile
115
Pitching+
99th percentile
28.4%
K%
84th percentile
6.2%
BB%
79th percentile
3.62
FIP
86th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 18.7 IP · 81 BF · 371 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+116
97th percentile
ABStuff+108
97th percentile
Whiff%28.7%
82th percentile
CSW%35.0%
61th percentile
Results
Pitching+115
99th percentile
RV/100+0.99
85th percentile
FIP3.62
86th percentile
RA/97.71
10th percentile
GB%50.9%
79th percentile
Command
K%28.4%
84th percentile
BB%6.2%
79th percentile
K-BB%22.2%
90th percentile
Velo91.0
76th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 18.7 IP · 81 BF · 371 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%23.1%
92th percentile
O-Whf%42.6%
57th percentile
Chase%30.3%
69th percentile
Z-Con%76.9%
95th percentile
O-Con%57.4%
57th percentile
SwStr%29.4%
75th percentile
PutAwy%16.2%
38th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.0%
80th percentile
Z-Swg%69.4%
68th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.7%
83th percentile
CS%17.7%
18th percentile
F-Str%60.8%
95th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-1.0/+0.6SL-2.4/+2.5CH+2.7/-1.3CB-2.8/-0.2SW-0.2/+3.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.36 ft (±0.11)
Side: 3.08 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 6.93 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
20
35.0
15.0
35.0
0.0
79.3
29.0
15.0
SL
15
66.7
6.7
20.0
0.0
80.3
5.1
46.7
CH
11
63.6
27.3
9.1
0.0
80.3
8.5
36.4
CB
4
50.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
66.9
14.4
0.0
SW
3
33.3
0.0
66.7
0.0
73.2
21.2
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
3.4
52nd pct
Separation
21.6
67th pct
Shape scatter
2.6 in
10th pct
Velo range
14.6 mph
79th pct
FF · SL · CH · CB · SW
2023 season, 371 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.09
72th percentile
Where he throws
+0.19
89th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.10
20th percentile
Heart33.1%
+132.31/100
Shadow41.0%
+150.11/100
Chase19.1%
−277.79/100
Waste6.7%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB9.2%−0.46
heart · FB21.0%+0.38
shadow · SL10.0%+0.19
shadow · CH7.5%+0.18
shadow · FB21.3%+0.17
11 other locations−0.37
Total+0.09
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.