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SEA · RHP · 2024
195.7 IP · 805 BF · 3,034 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
118
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
99th percentile
109
Pitching+
91th percentile
26.8%
K%
79th percentile
4.5%
BB%
95th percentile
3.84
FIP
76th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 195.7 IP · 805 BF · 3,034 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+118
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
99th percentile
Whiff%29.4%
88th percentile
CSW%38.1%
88th percentile
Results
Pitching+109
91th percentile
RV/100+1.18
87th percentile
FIP3.84
76th percentile
RA/93.27
71th percentile
GB%45.2%
65th percentile
Command
K%26.8%
79th percentile
BB%4.5%
95th percentile
K-BB%22.4%
90th percentile
Velo90.3
63th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 195.7 IP · 805 BF · 3,034 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%18.3%
78th percentile
O-Whf%56.1%
91th percentile
Chase%30.0%
68th percentile
Z-Con%81.7%
78th percentile
O-Con%43.9%
95th percentile
SwStr%30.1%
82th percentile
PutAwy%22.0%
84th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.6%
62th percentile
Z-Swg%70.3%
70th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.4%
77th percentile
CS%19.3%
39th percentile
F-Str%52.4%
63th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-3.7/-3.1FF+1.5/+1.1FS-4.9/+7.0SW-4.0/+1.3CT+3.0/+1.5SI-0.8/-0.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.83 ft (±0.14)
Side: -1.12 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 7.55 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
187
35.3
31.0
25.1
0.0
86.0
25.5
48.1
SL
187
56.7
18.7
19.8
0.0
83.7
0.7
34.2
CT
71
29.6
33.8
28.2
0.0
84.7
18.9
42.3
SW
52
44.2
19.2
26.9
0.0
76.7
13.1
25.0
FS
37
64.9
13.5
21.6
0.0
76.2
2.7
29.7
SI
8
62.5
0.0
37.5
0.0
85.6
3.0
62.5
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
67th pct
Effective mix
4.5
84th pct
Separation
17.6
24th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
80th pct
Velo range
13.4 mph
69th pct
SL · FF · FS · SW · CT
2024 season, 2,989 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.07
66th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
29th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.17
96th percentile
Heart30.7%
+131.67/100
Shadow38.6%
+152.37/100
Chase19.9%
−280.53/100
Waste10.8%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
shadow · SL16.7%+0.31
heart · FB12.5%+0.24
chase · FB4.4%−0.22
waste · SL5.4%−0.21
waste · CH3.5%−0.16
15 other locations+0.11
Total+0.07
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.