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SEA · RHP · 2026
175.3 IP · 753 BF · 2,954 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
118
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
99th percentile
111
Pitching+
93th percentile
27.0%
K%
81th percentile
6.2%
BB%
81th percentile
4.34
FIP
65th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 175.3 IP · 753 BF · 2,954 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+118
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
99th percentile
Whiff%27.9%
83th percentile
CSW%35.6%
77th percentile
Results
Pitching+111
93th percentile
RV/100+0.44
73th percentile
FIP4.34
65th percentile
RA/93.95
60th percentile
GB%39.8%
43th percentile
Command
K%27.0%
81th percentile
BB%6.2%
81th percentile
K-BB%20.7%
90th percentile
Velo89.7
49th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 175.3 IP · 753 BF · 2,954 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%18.2%
83th percentile
O-Whf%47.3%
79th percentile
Chase%32.6%
76th percentile
Z-Con%81.8%
83th percentile
O-Con%52.7%
79th percentile
SwStr%28.6%
74th percentile
PutAwy%19.4%
71th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.5%
63th percentile
Z-Swg%69.3%
72th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.4%
79th percentile
CS%18.1%
25th percentile
F-Str%53.3%
76th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.5/+1.1SL-3.7/-3.1FS-4.9/+7.0CH-3.1/-1.0SW-4.0/+1.3CT+3.0/+1.5SI-0.8/-0.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.01 ft (±0.11)
Side: -1.21 ft (±0.37)
Extension: 7.45 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
197
28.9
34.5
26.9
0.0
83.8
31.0
48.2
SL
133
49.6
24.1
22.6
0.0
83.1
2.3
42.9
FS
61
47.5
18.0
26.2
0.0
76.6
9.3
21.3
CT
33
33.3
33.3
18.2
0.0
87.3
29.1
48.5
SW
33
39.4
33.3
18.2
0.0
78.6
11.2
27.3
CH
30
60.0
10.0
23.3
0.0
77.3
6.7
33.3
SI
1
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
96.2
39.0
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
83rd pct
Effective mix
4.6
79th pct
Separation
19.4
47th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
82nd pct
Velo range
15.2 mph
84th pct
FF · SL · FS · CH · SW · CT
2026 season, 2,936 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CH
213
170
-0.25
-0.07
CT
150
119
-0.48
-0.07
FF
1,181
595
+0.75
-0.01
FS
445
289
+0.28
+0.13
SL
734
461
+0.74
+0.04
SW
213
183
-0.43
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.04
61th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
31th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.14
90th percentile
Heart30.3%
+174.27/100
Shadow39.2%
+115.87/100
Chase20.7%
−286.13/100
Waste9.8%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB17.4%+0.37
chase · FB4.9%−0.27
waste · CH4.9%−0.21
shadow · SL12.9%+0.18
shadow · CH7.4%+0.15
17 other locations−0.17
Total+0.04
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.