← BackShane Bieber
TOR · RHP · 2026
53.3 IP · 242 BF · 930 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
96
Stuff+
16th percentile
96
ABStuff+
9th percentile
101
Pitching+
31th percentile
18.2%
K%
32th percentile
9.9%
BB%
42th percentile
5.84
FIP
27th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 53.3 IP · 242 BF · 930 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+96
16th percentile
ABStuff+96
9th percentile
Whiff%21.0%
42th percentile
CSW%33.2%
50th percentile
Results
Pitching+101
31th percentile
RV/100-0.07
52th percentile
FIP5.84
27th percentile
RA/93.04
77th percentile
GB%43.7%
59th percentile
Command
K%18.2%
32th percentile
BB%9.9%
42th percentile
K-BB%8.3%
31th percentile
Velo88.5
33th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 53.3 IP · 242 BF · 930 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%7.6%
5th percentile
O-Whf%40.5%
55th percentile
Chase%29.6%
50th percentile
Z-Con%92.4%
9th percentile
O-Con%59.5%
55th percentile
SwStr%26.3%
44th percentile
PutAwy%18.5%
63th percentile
Approach
Zone%40.9%
5th percentile
Z-Swg%62.4%
20th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%43.0%
17th percentile
CS%21.8%
72th percentile
F-Str%47.1%
30th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.8/-3.1CB-2.4/-1.2CH-4.1/+1.9CT+0.6/-1.4SL-3.0/-3.7SI+3.7/-0.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.59 ft (±0.09)
Side: -1.59 ft (±0.23)
Extension: 6.58 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
51
33.3
35.3
15.7
0.0
86.0
29.0
47.1
CB
38
50.0
15.8
31.6
0.0
90.9
2.7
60.5
CH
32
53.1
28.1
15.6
0.0
85.3
9.7
46.9
CT
21
42.9
19.0
23.8
0.0
79.9
10.9
33.3
SL
20
40.0
30.0
30.0
0.0
85.5
4.9
50.0
SI
12
50.0
8.3
25.0
0.0
72.2
12.1
8.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
83rd pct
Effective mix
5.0
88th pct
Separation
18.6
36th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
37th pct
Velo range
9.7 mph
18th pct
FF · CB · CH · CT · SL · SI
2026 season, 930 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
172
118
-1.79
-0.34
CH
171
108
+2.08
-0.07
CT
113
93
-1.11
-0.07
FF
340
178
+0.46
-0.01
SL
93
68
-3.49
+0.04
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.24
12th percentile
Where he throws
−0.21
14th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.03
43th percentile
Heart25.9%
+174.27/100
Shadow41.2%
+115.87/100
Chase23.4%
−286.13/100
Waste9.5%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB5.9%−0.32
heart · FB12.0%+0.25
shadow · CH7.2%+0.14
shadow · FB16.8%+0.12
waste · FB1.8%−0.12
19 other locations−0.32
Total−0.24
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.