← BackMatthew Liberatore
STL · LHP · 2023
55.3 IP · 260 BF · 1,001 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
107
Stuff+
83th percentile
103
ABStuff+
83th percentile
99
Pitching+
34th percentile
16.5%
K%
20th percentile
8.5%
BB%
51th percentile
4.70
FIP
57th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 55.3 IP · 260 BF · 1,001 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+107
83th percentile
ABStuff+103
83th percentile
Whiff%17.5%
15th percentile
CSW%31.3%
23th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
34th percentile
RV/100-0.38
41th percentile
FIP4.70
57th percentile
RA/94.23
60th percentile
GB%43.7%
55th percentile
Command
K%16.5%
20th percentile
BB%8.5%
51th percentile
K-BB%8.1%
25th percentile
Velo88.7
43th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 55.3 IP · 260 BF · 1,001 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.5%
15th percentile
O-Whf%37.0%
36th percentile
Chase%23.6%
17th percentile
Z-Con%89.5%
15th percentile
O-Con%63.0%
36th percentile
SwStr%24.1%
17th percentile
PutAwy%16.7%
43th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.7%
59th percentile
Z-Swg%66.9%
46th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.1%
28th percentile
CS%21.0%
58th percentile
F-Str%44.2%
18th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.6/-0.6CB-5.6/+1.9SI+2.6/+0.3SL-1.4/+0.1CH+1.3/-1.4ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.39 ft (±0.11)
Side: 1.21 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 6.34 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
80
33.8
27.5
30.0
0.0
85.4
27.9
45.0
SI
48
43.8
25.0
22.9
0.0
85.2
23.5
52.1
CB
23
65.2
21.7
13.0
0.0
79.3
-15.9
34.8
SL
23
47.8
26.1
21.7
0.0
86.0
6.1
34.8
CH
16
56.2
6.2
31.2
0.0
80.4
10.0
31.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
4.4
88th pct
Separation
23.5
83rd pct
Shape scatter
2.6 in
6th pct
Velo range
17.8 mph
94th pct
FF · CB · SI · SL · CH
2023 season, 1,001 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.03
45th percentile
Where he throws
−0.01
52th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.02
44th percentile
Heart31.5%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.2%
+150.11/100
Chase20.0%
−277.79/100
Waste9.3%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.2%−0.36
heart · FB13.8%+0.25
waste · CB4.8%−0.16
heart · SI7.1%+0.13
shadow · SI8.5%+0.13
16 other locations−0.03
Total−0.03
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.