← BackBowden Francis
TOR · RHP · 2025
60.0 IP · 289 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
90
Stuff+
5th percentile
96
ABStuff+
9th percentile
100
Pitching+
29th percentile
18.7%
K%
32th percentile
9.3%
BB%
43th percentile
7.37
FIP
10th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 60.0 IP · 289 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+90
5th percentile
ABStuff+96
9th percentile
Whiff%21.2%
40th percentile
CSW%32.4%
35th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
29th percentile
RV/100-1.44
21th percentile
FIP7.37
10th percentile
RA/93.60
69th percentile
GB%33.8%
21th percentile
Command
K%18.7%
32th percentile
BB%9.3%
43th percentile
K-BB%9.3%
31th percentile
Velo87.0
18th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 60.0 IP · 289 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.7%
41th percentile
O-Whf%42.8%
54th percentile
Chase%24.0%
21th percentile
Z-Con%86.3%
41th percentile
O-Con%57.2%
54th percentile
SwStr%25.8%
35th percentile
PutAwy%14.6%
27th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.5%
41th percentile
Z-Swg%69.9%
74th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.7%
44th percentile
CS%19.9%
50th percentile
F-Str%49.7%
48th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+2.6/+0.8FS+2.7/+2.9CB+1.9/+5.5SL-1.9/+1.5SI+4.4/+1.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.96 ft (±0.12)
Side: -2.13 ft (±0.19)
Extension: 6.84 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
134
32.8
29.9
23.1
0.0
85.6
31.7
54.5
FS
40
32.5
35.0
22.5
0.0
82.9
10.9
47.5
CB
16
50.0
25.0
25.0
0.0
80.8
9.8
37.5
SL
11
27.3
36.4
36.4
0.0
88.3
15.7
63.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
27th pct
Effective mix
3.0
32nd pct
Separation
23.2
83rd pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
18.7 mph
98th pct
FF · FS · CB · SL
2025 season, 1,121 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.09
32th percentile
Where he throws
−0.04
44th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.05
30th percentile
Heart29.6%
+148.26/100
Shadow40.4%
+125.76/100
Chase22.8%
−278.14/100
Waste7.2%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB9.6%−0.48
heart · FB21.2%+0.43
shadow · FB23.4%+0.18
shadow · CH8.0%+0.17
waste · CH3.1%−0.14
15 other locations−0.25
Total−0.09
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.