← BackCarlos Hernández
PHI · RHP · 2025
43.0 IP · 203 BF · 758 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
111
Stuff+
91th percentile
106
ABStuff+
92th percentile
108
Pitching+
82th percentile
19.2%
K%
36th percentile
10.3%
BB%
32th percentile
4.57
FIP
55th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 203 BF · 758 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+111
91th percentile
ABStuff+106
92th percentile
Whiff%25.5%
68th percentile
CSW%34.3%
57th percentile
Results
Pitching+108
82th percentile
RV/100-0.52
39th percentile
FIP4.57
55th percentile
RA/95.44
28th percentile
GB%34.3%
22th percentile
Command
K%19.2%
36th percentile
BB%10.3%
32th percentile
K-BB%8.9%
29th percentile
Velo92.7
89th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 203 BF · 758 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%16.9%
68th percentile
O-Whf%51.0%
80th percentile
Chase%27.1%
45th percentile
Z-Con%83.1%
68th percentile
O-Con%49.0%
80th percentile
SwStr%27.5%
57th percentile
PutAwy%17.5%
53th percentile
Approach
Zone%53.4%
79th percentile
Z-Swg%70.1%
76th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.1%
76th percentile
CS%18.4%
30th percentile
F-Str%47.8%
34th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.2/-1.1FS+0.6/+9.6SL+1.2/+0.2CBSIring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.01 ft (±0.15)
Side: -1.77 ft (±0.29)
Extension: 6.93 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
79
35.4
36.7
22.8
0.0
84.8
30.1
43.0
SL
30
33.3
40.0
13.3
0.0
82.8
18.0
40.0
FS
19
42.1
15.8
26.3
0.0
77.9
8.9
10.5
CB
10
20.0
30.0
40.0
0.0
86.9
14.3
60.0
SI
2
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
84.6
11.5
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
27th pct
Effective mix
3.2
38th pct
Separation
18.9
38th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
71st pct
Velo range
15.1 mph
85th pct
FF · FS · SL · CB
2025 season, 744 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.15
84th percentile
Where he throws
+0.20
92th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.06
27th percentile
Heart33.7%
+148.26/100
Shadow41.4%
+125.76/100
Chase19.0%
−278.14/100
Waste5.9%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB20.3%+0.41
chase · FB7.8%−0.39
shadow · CH8.7%+0.18
shadow · FB22.1%+0.17
shadow · SL6.7%+0.10
15 other locations−0.34
Total+0.15
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.