← BackKeaton Winn
SF · RHP · 2024
48.7 IP · 230 BF · 846 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
101
Stuff+
48th percentile
99
ABStuff+
40th percentile
102
Pitching+
51th percentile
20.4%
K%
44th percentile
8.3%
BB%
49th percentile
5.15
FIP
37th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 48.7 IP · 230 BF · 846 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+101
48th percentile
ABStuff+99
40th percentile
Whiff%23.0%
52th percentile
CSW%33.3%
43th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
51th percentile
RV/100-0.93
25th percentile
FIP5.15
37th percentile
RA/93.51
66th percentile
GB%51.3%
83th percentile
Command
K%20.4%
44th percentile
BB%8.3%
49th percentile
K-BB%12.2%
44th percentile
Velo91.7
80th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 48.7 IP · 230 BF · 846 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.5%
41th percentile
O-Whf%43.9%
60th percentile
Chase%33.3%
90th percentile
Z-Con%86.5%
41th percentile
O-Con%56.1%
60th percentile
SwStr%26.5%
41th percentile
PutAwy%17.0%
47th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.7%
63th percentile
Z-Swg%70.9%
75th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%52.4%
90th percentile
CS%18.2%
25th percentile
F-Str%53.7%
73th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FS-2.4/-2.1FF-1.3/-1.5SI-2.3/+1.8SL+1.2/-3.5ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.23 ft (±0.14)
Side: -1.45 ft (±0.16)
Extension: 6.21 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FS
69
53.6
20.3
23.2
0.0
83.1
-2.0
47.8
SI
36
50.0
13.9
36.1
0.0
85.1
9.3
52.8
FF
29
37.9
37.9
17.2
0.0
83.9
34.3
51.7
SL
24
62.5
20.8
16.7
0.0
85.1
5.4
54.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
30th pct
Effective mix
3.7
62nd pct
Separation
15.1
8th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
69th pct
Velo range
7.8 mph
6th pct
FS · FF · SI · SL
2024 season, 846 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.11
74th percentile
Where he throws
+0.13
80th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.03
37th percentile
Heart33.6%
+131.67/100
Shadow39.4%
+152.37/100
Chase20.1%
−280.53/100
Waste7.0%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
shadow · CH16.4%+0.37
chase · FB4.7%−0.23
heart · FB9.7%+0.19
waste · CH3.4%−0.16
chase · CH8.9%−0.15
11 other locations+0.10
Total+0.11
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.