← BackAlec Marsh
KC · RHP · 2023
69.3 IP · 343 BF · 1,342 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
100
Stuff+
50th percentile
101
ABStuff+
63th percentile
99
Pitching+
38th percentile
24.8%
K%
68th percentile
11.4%
BB%
23th percentile
6.12
FIP
23th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 69.3 IP · 343 BF · 1,342 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+100
50th percentile
ABStuff+101
63th percentile
Whiff%27.2%
76th percentile
CSW%35.2%
63th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
38th percentile
RV/100-1.33
20th percentile
FIP6.12
23th percentile
RA/94.02
64th percentile
GB%36.1%
23th percentile
Command
K%24.8%
68th percentile
BB%11.4%
23th percentile
K-BB%13.4%
53th percentile
Velo89.1
49th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 69.3 IP · 343 BF · 1,342 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%15.4%
50th percentile
O-Whf%50.0%
81th percentile
Chase%28.9%
56th percentile
Z-Con%84.6%
50th percentile
O-Con%50.0%
81th percentile
SwStr%28.8%
67th percentile
PutAwy%20.5%
75th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.3%
26th percentile
Z-Swg%64.8%
31th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.5%
33th percentile
CS%20.1%
46th percentile
F-Str%50.1%
49th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.8/-1.6SW-2.3/-2.6CH-1.6/-0.5CB+2.0/-2.6SL-1.2/-0.8SI-1.6/-1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.67 ft (±0.14)
Side: -2.34 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 6.37 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
55
16.4
38.2
38.2
0.0
82.2
31.9
41.8
CH
43
46.5
25.6
27.9
0.0
83.0
9.3
37.2
SW
31
32.3
35.5
29.0
0.0
79.9
18.0
35.5
CB
30
36.7
43.3
13.3
0.0
86.2
10.7
40.0
SI
28
57.1
21.4
21.4
0.0
86.8
-1.1
53.6
SL
21
42.9
28.6
23.8
0.0
82.5
10.4
47.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
94th pct
Effective mix
5.2
97th pct
Separation
19.5
44th pct
Shape scatter
3.2 in
57th pct
Velo range
13.1 mph
63rd pct
FF · SW · CB · CH · SL · SI
2023 season, 1,342 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.26
13th percentile
Where he throws
−0.25
9th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
49th percentile
Heart27.9%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.0%
+150.11/100
Chase23.0%
−277.79/100
Waste11.1%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.7%−0.39
heart · FB12.2%+0.22
waste · SL4.9%−0.20
shadow · SL8.4%+0.16
waste · FB2.5%−0.16
15 other locations+0.11
Total−0.26
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.