← BackGrayson Rodriguez
BAL · RHP · 2023
111.3 IP · 516 BF · 2,104 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
115
Stuff+
97th percentile
108
ABStuff+
96th percentile
107
Pitching+
86th percentile
25.0%
K%
70th percentile
8.1%
BB%
57th percentile
4.57
FIP
61th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 111.3 IP · 516 BF · 2,104 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+115
97th percentile
ABStuff+108
96th percentile
Whiff%24.1%
57th percentile
CSW%33.6%
46th percentile
Results
Pitching+107
86th percentile
RV/100+0.02
53th percentile
FIP4.57
61th percentile
RA/96.14
23th percentile
GB%46.9%
66th percentile
Command
K%25.0%
70th percentile
BB%8.1%
57th percentile
K-BB%16.9%
71th percentile
Velo90.4
68th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 111.3 IP · 516 BF · 2,104 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%16.6%
61th percentile
O-Whf%42.6%
57th percentile
Chase%29.6%
62th percentile
Z-Con%83.4%
61th percentile
O-Con%57.4%
57th percentile
SwStr%27.6%
52th percentile
PutAwy%16.9%
45th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.4%
76th percentile
Z-Swg%70.0%
73th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.4%
81th percentile
CS%18.9%
30th percentile
F-Str%51.4%
58th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.3/-3.6CH-0.8/+3.6SWCB+1.0/-3.2CTSL-0.4/+1.0ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.78 ft (±0.12)
Side: -2.41 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 7.13 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
150
40.0
24.0
32.7
0.0
83.5
24.6
50.7
CH
114
58.8
13.2
22.8
0.0
81.2
5.3
35.1
SW
38
31.6
42.1
18.4
0.0
75.8
21.6
26.3
CB
22
54.5
31.8
13.6
0.0
86.0
2.4
54.5
CT
16
56.2
31.2
12.5
0.0
85.6
13.5
62.5
SL
1
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
73.2
5.1
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
3.7
64th pct
Separation
22.8
78th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
69th pct
Velo range
17.4 mph
93rd pct
FF · CH · SW · CB · CT
2023 season, 2,079 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.05
64th percentile
Where he throws
+0.12
78th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
29th percentile
Heart34.1%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.8%
+150.11/100
Chase19.7%
−277.79/100
Waste7.4%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.8%−0.40
heart · FB20.0%+0.36
shadow · CH9.7%+0.23
shadow · FB19.7%+0.16
waste · FB2.0%−0.13
15 other locations−0.17
Total+0.05
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.