Erik Tolman

WSH · LHP · 2026

14.0 IP · 67 BF · 289 pitches · 2026 season

MED Descriptive — not a forecast

116

Stuff+

110

ABStuff+

108

Pitching+

25.4%

13.4%

BB%

4.13

FIP

Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.

Percentile rankings

vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 14.0 IP · 67 BF · 289 pitches · 2026 season

Stuff

Stuff+

116

ABStuff+

110

Whiff%

27.7%

CSW%

33.6%

Results

Pitching+

108

RV/100

+0.39

FIP

4.13

RA/9

3.86

GB%

51.2%

Command

25.4%

BB%

13.4%

K-BB%

11.9%

Velo

91.6

How to read these

Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.

Percentile rankings

Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 14.0 IP · 67 BF · 289 pitches · 2026 season

Swing & miss

Z-Whf%

21.9%

O-Whf%

41.9%

Chase%

30.3%

Z-Con%

78.1%

O-Con%

58.1%

SwStr%

28.7%

PutAwy%

17.9%

Approach

Zone%

50.9%

Z-Swg%

71.4%

Swing%

51.2%

CS%

17.0%

F-Str%

46.3%

How to read these

Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.

ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab

Pitch

Usage

Velo

IVB

Spin

Whiff%

CSW%

Zone%

Chase%

Stuff+

ABStuff+

52.2%

96.8

16.2

9.3

2354

25.4%

31.9%

55.0%

22.1%

113

110

27.3%

84.8

0.3

12.8

1273

26.5%

33.9%

48.1%

43.9%

136

110

20.4%

87.1

2.2

-3.2

2237

35.7%

38.0%

44.1%

30.3%

109

110

Movement Profile

FF-0.9/-3.7CH-7.9/+0.3SL+0.7/-0.9ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive

Release Traits

Height: 6.04 ft (±0.11)

Side: 1.69 ft (±0.13)

Extension: 6.36 ft

Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.

Batted Ball Against

Pitch

N_BIP

GB%

FB%

LD%

PU%

Avg EV

Avg LA

HrdHit%

65.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

79.9

1.7

25.0

23.1

46.2

23.1

0.0

80.0

33.7

38.5

62.5

12.5

0.0

77.3

12.2

12.5

Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.

Arsenal

Pitches

4th pct

Effective mix

2.8

17th pct

Separation

19.2

45th pct

Shape scatter

3.1 in

48th pct

Velo range

12.0 mph

49th pct

FF · CH · SL

2026 season, 289 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.

Run value by pitch2026 · measured

Pitch

Pitches

PA reach

RV/100

Lg avg

+2.22

-0.07

151

-0.82

-0.01

+1.05

+0.04

RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.

Location value

runs per 100 pitches vs league

2026 · 289 located pitches

Total

−0.07

39th percentile

Where he throws

+0.00

52th percentile

Which pitch there

−0.07

30th percentile

Heart32.9%

+174.27/100

Shadow37.0%

+115.87/100

Chase23.5%

−286.13/100

Waste6.6%

−497.23/100

What makes up the total

chase · FB11.4%−0.62

heart · FB21.8%+0.46

shadow · CH12.5%+0.25

waste · FB2.4%−0.15

shadow · FB16.6%+0.12

7 other locations−0.12

Total−0.07

Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.