← BackLuke Little
CHC · LHP · 2023
6.7 IP · 30 BF · 135 pitches · 2023 season
LOW Descriptive — not a forecast
119
Stuff+
99th percentile
110
ABStuff+
98th percentile
100
Pitching+
44th percentile
40.0%
K%
13.3%
BB%
2.08
FIP
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 6.7 IP · 30 BF · 135 pitches · 2023 season
Small sample: 6.7 IP · 30 BF · 135 pitches · 2023 season. Rows need 50 batters faced to rank (model grades 100 pitches); below that they show the sample (n=) instead of a percentile, so nothing here reads as elite or poor on a handful of hitters.
Stuff
Stuff+119
99th percentile
ABStuff+110
98th percentile
Whiff%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
44.4%CSW%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
42.7%Results
Pitching+100
44th percentile
RV/100
n=30 BF — too few to rank
+0.58FIP
n=30 BF — too few to rank
2.08RA/9
n=30 BF — too few to rank
12.15GB%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
61.5%Command
K%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
40.0%BB%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
13.3%K-BB%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
26.7%Velo
n=30 BF — too few to rank
90.1How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 6.7 IP · 30 BF · 135 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
32.4%O-Whf%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
70.6%Chase%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
23.3%Z-Con%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
67.6%O-Con%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
29.4%SwStr%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
37.0%PutAwy%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
27.9%Approach
Zone%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
45.9%Z-Swg%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
59.7%Swing%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
40.0%CS%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
22.2%F-Str%
n=30 BF — too few to rank
51.7%How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-4.6/+5.4SWring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.54 ft (±0.14)
Side: 3.41 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 7.34 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
9
55.6
22.2
22.2
0.0
87.0
11.8
44.4
SW
4
75.0
0.0
25.0
0.0
64.0
4.5
25.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
5th pct
Separation
31.1
98th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
15.9 mph
86th pct
FF · SW
2023 season, 135 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
Not published for Luke Little — under 200 located pitches, which is the sample the mix decomposition is defined on.