← BackBrandon Williamson
CIN · LHP · 2026
46.0 IP · 230 BF · 907 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
93
Stuff+
9th percentile
97
ABStuff+
19th percentile
99
Pitching+
20th percentile
15.7%
K%
20th percentile
12.6%
BB%
21th percentile
6.57
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 46.0 IP · 230 BF · 907 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+93
9th percentile
ABStuff+97
19th percentile
Whiff%21.8%
48th percentile
CSW%31.0%
24th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
20th percentile
RV/100-0.83
31th percentile
FIP6.57
20th percentile
RA/94.30
53th percentile
GB%39.8%
43th percentile
Command
K%15.7%
20th percentile
BB%12.6%
21th percentile
K-BB%3.0%
14th percentile
Velo87.4
21th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 46.0 IP · 230 BF · 907 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%18.1%
82th percentile
O-Whf%30.3%
18th percentile
Chase%24.4%
15th percentile
Z-Con%81.9%
82th percentile
O-Con%69.7%
18th percentile
SwStr%25.0%
26th percentile
PutAwy%14.2%
25th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.2%
39th percentile
Z-Swg%65.9%
44th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%43.6%
20th percentile
CS%19.2%
38th percentile
F-Str%43.0%
14th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CT+1.9/-0.3CH+1.5/-2.1FF+1.4/-0.6SW+1.5/-0.3CB-2.3/+2.0SI+5.7/+1.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.51 ft (±0.14)
Side: 1.24 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 5.97 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CT
56
46.4
23.2
19.6
0.0
82.6
18.4
42.9
CH
32
46.9
28.1
21.9
0.0
81.3
9.5
40.6
FF
25
20.0
36.0
36.0
0.0
84.1
26.5
40.0
SI
20
35.0
25.0
30.0
0.0
88.3
29.4
75.0
SW
19
31.6
31.6
26.3
0.0
81.6
24.0
15.8
CB
9
55.6
33.3
0.0
0.0
75.2
-3.0
11.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
83rd pct
Effective mix
5.3
92nd pct
Separation
23.0
85th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
82nd pct
Velo range
18.0 mph
96th pct
CT · CH · FF · SW · CB · SI
2026 season, 907 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
80
70
+1.23
-0.34
CH
191
119
-1.90
-0.07
CT
302
165
+1.15
-0.07
FF
155
107
-4.48
-0.01
SI
76
56
-6.64
+0.27
SW
103
65
+3.52
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.03
45th percentile
Where he throws
+0.01
53th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.04
38th percentile
Heart31.6%
+174.27/100
Shadow39.7%
+115.87/100
Chase20.0%
−286.13/100
Waste8.7%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · CT13.3%+0.22
chase · CT5.0%−0.18
chase · FB3.3%−0.18
shadow · CH7.4%+0.15
waste · CH3.2%−0.14
19 other locations+0.10
Total−0.03
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.