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PIT · RHP · 2023
46.7 IP · 234 BF · 860 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
96
Stuff+
29th percentile
99
ABStuff+
41th percentile
100
Pitching+
47th percentile
15.4%
K%
16th percentile
11.1%
BB%
24th percentile
7.35
FIP
10th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 46.7 IP · 234 BF · 860 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+96
29th percentile
ABStuff+99
41th percentile
Whiff%21.6%
39th percentile
CSW%34.0%
50th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
47th percentile
RV/100-1.46
18th percentile
FIP7.35
10th percentile
RA/96.75
18th percentile
GB%53.3%
84th percentile
Command
K%15.4%
16th percentile
BB%11.1%
24th percentile
K-BB%4.3%
14th percentile
Velo89.3
51th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 46.7 IP · 234 BF · 860 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.0%
39th percentile
O-Whf%39.8%
47th percentile
Chase%25.7%
29th percentile
Z-Con%86.0%
39th percentile
O-Con%60.2%
47th percentile
SwStr%25.8%
32th percentile
PutAwy%14.6%
23th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.0%
52th percentile
Z-Swg%64.4%
29th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.7%
25th percentile
CS%21.3%
61th percentile
F-Str%48.9%
40th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI-4.1/-1.3SL-2.1/0.0FFCB+2.9/-3.2CH-3.7/+0.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.06 ft (±0.11)
Side: -1.00 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 6.43 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
61
62.3
8.2
24.6
0.0
85.1
0.7
55.7
FF
41
34.1
34.1
19.5
0.0
84.7
19.2
41.5
SL
32
59.4
15.6
21.9
0.0
84.1
-3.5
46.9
CB
19
47.4
21.1
31.6
0.0
83.8
8.6
42.1
CH
14
64.3
14.3
21.4
0.0
81.1
-18.6
35.7
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
4.6
92nd pct
Separation
18.4
33rd pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
54th pct
Velo range
13.0 mph
62nd pct
SI · SL · FF · CB · CH
2023 season, 860 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.03
45th percentile
Where he throws
−0.19
16th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.15
90th percentile
Heart28.7%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.7%
+150.11/100
Chase21.2%
−277.79/100
Waste11.4%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI14.1%+0.27
chase · SI5.2%−0.21
shadow · SI12.9%+0.20
shadow · SL9.1%+0.18
chase · FB3.4%−0.17
15 other locations−0.30
Total−0.03
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.