← BackAngel Chivilli
COL · RHP · 2025
54.7 IP · 275 BF · 1,022 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
102
Stuff+
54th percentile
100
ABStuff+
37th percentile
99
Pitching+
23th percentile
15.6%
K%
17th percentile
8.0%
BB%
57th percentile
6.43
FIP
19th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 54.7 IP · 275 BF · 1,022 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+102
54th percentile
ABStuff+100
37th percentile
Whiff%28.9%
85th percentile
CSW%35.2%
69th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
23th percentile
RV/100-2.22
10th percentile
FIP6.43
19th percentile
RA/93.95
61th percentile
GB%49.8%
80th percentile
Command
K%15.6%
17th percentile
BB%8.0%
57th percentile
K-BB%7.6%
23th percentile
Velo92.8
90th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 54.7 IP · 275 BF · 1,022 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%20.2%
86th percentile
O-Whf%47.8%
71th percentile
Chase%29.4%
67th percentile
Z-Con%79.8%
86th percentile
O-Con%52.2%
71th percentile
SwStr%27.1%
51th percentile
PutAwy%15.2%
32th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.5%
18th percentile
Z-Swg%73.9%
91th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.1%
76th percentile
CS%16.4%
5th percentile
F-Str%45.1%
20th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-5.0/-7.5CH+1.6/+2.0SL+4.1/-4.5ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.79 ft (±0.10)
Side: -1.60 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 6.29 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
114
50.0
21.9
25.4
0.0
87.9
9.4
57.0
CH
58
53.4
15.5
22.4
0.0
82.4
5.9
27.6
SL
31
41.9
41.9
16.1
0.0
78.5
13.4
19.4
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
6th pct
Effective mix
2.8
22nd pct
Separation
13.3
1st pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
82nd pct
Velo range
8.4 mph
9th pct
FF · CH · SL
2025 season, 1,022 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.10
30th percentile
Where he throws
−0.12
25th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.02
61th percentile
Heart24.7%
+148.26/100
Shadow44.4%
+125.76/100
Chase22.1%
−278.14/100
Waste8.8%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.8%−0.39
shadow · CH16.1%+0.34
heart · FB13.2%+0.27
waste · CH4.1%−0.19
waste · FB2.9%−0.18
7 other locations+0.04
Total−0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.