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COL · RHP · 2025
70.7 IP · 337 BF · 1,244 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
95
Stuff+
16th percentile
98
ABStuff+
23th percentile
101
Pitching+
33th percentile
18.4%
K%
30th percentile
5.0%
BB%
89th percentile
5.62
FIP
28th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 70.7 IP · 337 BF · 1,244 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+95
16th percentile
ABStuff+98
23th percentile
Whiff%16.5%
12th percentile
CSW%30.1%
15th percentile
Results
Pitching+101
33th percentile
RV/100-1.66
18th percentile
FIP5.62
28th percentile
RA/94.97
39th percentile
GB%35.3%
25th percentile
Command
K%18.4%
30th percentile
BB%5.0%
89th percentile
K-BB%13.4%
55th percentile
Velo88.2
31th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 70.7 IP · 337 BF · 1,244 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.9%
25th percentile
O-Whf%32.4%
18th percentile
Chase%27.1%
45th percentile
Z-Con%88.1%
25th percentile
O-Con%67.6%
18th percentile
SwStr%23.2%
11th percentile
PutAwy%15.8%
38th percentile
Approach
Zone%56.0%
93th percentile
Z-Swg%73.7%
91th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%53.2%
92th percentile
CS%18.7%
34th percentile
F-Str%52.4%
69th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.7/-1.3SL+4.0/-3.2CH+3.1/+1.2CB+7.0/-8.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.16 ft (±0.10)
Side: -2.77 ft (±0.14)
Extension: 6.20 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
118
28.0
29.7
34.7
0.0
84.7
27.0
52.5
SL
71
45.1
21.1
26.8
0.0
81.0
11.6
26.8
CH
63
39.7
36.5
19.0
0.0
82.6
18.2
36.5
CB
3
0.0
66.7
0.0
0.0
94.1
46.7
33.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
6th pct
Effective mix
2.8
21st pct
Separation
15.3
8th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
42nd pct
Velo range
9.1 mph
14th pct
FF · SL · CH
2025 season, 1,239 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.26
96th percentile
Where he throws
+0.26
96th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.00
51th percentile
Heart34.2%
+148.26/100
Shadow41.8%
+125.76/100
Chase19.2%
−278.14/100
Waste4.8%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB21.8%+0.44
chase · FB8.2%−0.41
shadow · CH9.6%+0.20
shadow · FB21.9%+0.17
shadow · SL10.4%+0.16
9 other locations−0.30
Total+0.26
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.