← BackBryce Jarvis
AZ · RHP · 2024
51.7 IP · 254 BF · 1,005 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
102
Stuff+
59th percentile
100
ABStuff+
44th percentile
98
Pitching+
26th percentile
14.6%
K%
12th percentile
11.4%
BB%
21th percentile
5.53
FIP
27th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 51.7 IP · 254 BF · 1,005 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+102
59th percentile
ABStuff+100
44th percentile
Whiff%19.3%
25th percentile
CSW%29.8%
12th percentile
Results
Pitching+98
26th percentile
RV/100-0.05
53th percentile
FIP5.53
27th percentile
RA/96.45
15th percentile
GB%42.9%
55th percentile
Command
K%14.6%
12th percentile
BB%11.4%
21th percentile
K-BB%3.1%
5th percentile
Velo91.1
74th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 51.7 IP · 254 BF · 1,005 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%12.2%
29th percentile
O-Whf%40.0%
46th percentile
Chase%25.5%
28th percentile
Z-Con%87.8%
29th percentile
O-Con%60.0%
46th percentile
SwStr%24.0%
15th percentile
PutAwy%11.8%
10th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.1%
68th percentile
Z-Swg%70.2%
69th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%48.4%
57th percentile
CS%18.2%
25th percentile
F-Str%47.0%
25th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.9/-2.7SL-3.8/+1.7SI+1.9/-0.4CH+0.2/-3.1CT-1.7/-3.0CB0.0/+0.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.65 ft (±0.15)
Side: -2.28 ft (±0.22)
Extension: 5.98 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
59
44.1
27.1
27.1
0.0
85.0
25.5
47.5
SL
55
43.6
21.8
29.1
0.0
81.8
11.3
36.4
SI
29
55.2
20.7
24.1
0.0
85.6
12.2
48.3
CT
21
33.3
47.6
14.3
0.0
84.1
12.7
38.1
CH
17
29.4
52.9
17.6
0.0
78.6
22.0
17.6
CB
1
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
91.5
46.0
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
67th pct
Effective mix
4.6
87th pct
Separation
17.0
21st pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
50th pct
Velo range
10.6 mph
32nd pct
FF · SL · SI · CH · CT
2024 season, 999 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.00
53th percentile
Where he throws
+0.01
54th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.00
47th percentile
Heart32.7%
+131.67/100
Shadow37.6%
+152.37/100
Chase22.0%
−280.53/100
Waste7.7%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB5.9%−0.29
heart · FB13.5%+0.26
shadow · SL8.6%+0.16
shadow · FB13.6%+0.15
waste · CH2.6%−0.12
19 other locations−0.16
Total+0.00
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.