← BackLouis Varland
MIN · RHP · 2024
46.0 IP · 236 BF · 892 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
104
Stuff+
68th percentile
103
ABStuff+
80th percentile
105
Pitching+
75th percentile
20.3%
K%
43th percentile
6.4%
BB%
71th percentile
6.05
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 46.0 IP · 236 BF · 892 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+104
68th percentile
ABStuff+103
80th percentile
Whiff%22.0%
45th percentile
CSW%32.1%
30th percentile
Results
Pitching+105
75th percentile
RV/100-1.77
14th percentile
FIP6.05
20th percentile
RA/91.96
95th percentile
GB%43.5%
57th percentile
Command
K%20.3%
43th percentile
BB%6.4%
71th percentile
K-BB%14.0%
53th percentile
Velo91.9
82th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 46.0 IP · 236 BF · 892 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.7%
51th percentile
O-Whf%49.5%
78th percentile
Chase%23.6%
17th percentile
Z-Con%85.3%
51th percentile
O-Con%50.5%
78th percentile
SwStr%25.2%
25th percentile
PutAwy%18.1%
57th percentile
Approach
Zone%54.9%
91th percentile
Z-Swg%73.5%
90th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%51.0%
81th percentile
CS%17.8%
21th percentile
F-Str%51.9%
60th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.6/+0.5SL+3.5/+0.6CB+1.9/-1.1CH-3.6/+2.3SI+2.1/-1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.53 ft (±0.14)
Side: -2.03 ft (±0.48)
Extension: 6.98 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
63
39.7
30.2
25.4
0.0
82.6
25.8
38.1
SL
51
41.2
27.5
29.4
0.0
85.1
15.5
47.1
CB
30
46.7
23.3
30.0
0.0
88.9
6.6
60.0
CH
16
56.2
25.0
18.8
0.0
80.2
3.6
25.0
SI
8
50.0
25.0
25.0
0.0
86.7
10.8
75.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
67th pct
Effective mix
3.9
72nd pct
Separation
17.4
24th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
55th pct
Velo range
11.6 mph
45th pct
FF · SL · CB · CH · SI
2024 season, 892 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.23
91th percentile
Where he throws
+0.16
85th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.07
76th percentile
Heart37.7%
+131.67/100
Shadow36.4%
+152.37/100
Chase18.4%
−280.53/100
Waste7.5%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB19.4%+0.37
chase · FB5.6%−0.28
shadow · FB16.3%+0.18
shadow · SL9.1%+0.17
waste · SL2.9%−0.11
15 other locations−0.10
Total+0.23
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.