← BackMitch Spence
ATH · RHP · 2025
79.7 IP · 374 BF · 1,353 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
37th percentile
100
ABStuff+
38th percentile
105
Pitching+
70th percentile
17.6%
K%
25th percentile
6.4%
BB%
76th percentile
5.56
FIP
29th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 79.7 IP · 374 BF · 1,353 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
37th percentile
ABStuff+100
38th percentile
Whiff%23.8%
57th percentile
CSW%34.9%
65th percentile
Results
Pitching+105
70th percentile
RV/100-0.91
30th percentile
FIP5.56
29th percentile
RA/93.84
64th percentile
GB%43.9%
61th percentile
Command
K%17.6%
25th percentile
BB%6.4%
76th percentile
K-BB%11.2%
42th percentile
Velo87.8
25th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 79.7 IP · 374 BF · 1,353 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%12.7%
32th percentile
O-Whf%48.1%
72th percentile
Chase%31.4%
81th percentile
Z-Con%87.3%
32th percentile
O-Con%51.9%
72th percentile
SwStr%26.9%
49th percentile
PutAwy%16.1%
40th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.2%
38th percentile
Z-Swg%70.9%
79th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.8%
80th percentile
CS%19.2%
41th percentile
F-Str%49.2%
44th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CT-0.6/-0.8SL+1.9/+8.6CB+1.2/+1.6SI-3.9/+1.7CH-4.5/+1.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.11 ft (±0.15)
Side: -2.36 ft (±0.35)
Extension: 6.24 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CT
131
45.0
27.5
23.7
0.0
86.9
14.2
48.9
SL
69
30.4
27.5
31.9
0.0
81.9
15.6
31.9
CB
50
56.0
16.0
24.0
0.0
83.1
0.4
30.0
SI
26
50.0
26.9
23.1
0.0
87.4
7.2
65.4
CH
2
50.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
87.1
23.7
50.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
27th pct
Effective mix
3.5
46th pct
Separation
17.3
21st pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
73rd pct
Velo range
10.9 mph
34th pct
CT · SL · CB · SI
2025 season, 1,336 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.00
51th percentile
Where he throws
−0.06
39th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.05
74th percentile
Heart30.5%
+148.26/100
Shadow39.8%
+125.76/100
Chase20.9%
−278.14/100
Waste8.8%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · CT18.1%+0.27
chase · CT6.9%−0.25
shadow · CT18.0%+0.22
shadow · SL10.0%+0.15
waste · CT2.0%−0.11
15 other locations−0.28
Total−0.00
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.