← BackMatt Svanson
STL · RHP · 2026
42.0 IP · 207 BF · 788 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
104
Stuff+
65th percentile
101
ABStuff+
54th percentile
102
Pitching+
36th percentile
19.8%
K%
43th percentile
10.1%
BB%
40th percentile
4.80
FIP
50th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 42.0 IP · 207 BF · 788 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+104
65th percentile
ABStuff+101
54th percentile
Whiff%15.4%
5th percentile
CSW%27.1%
5th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
36th percentile
RV/100-0.91
29th percentile
FIP4.80
50th percentile
RA/93.00
78th percentile
GB%37.8%
34th percentile
Command
K%19.8%
43th percentile
BB%10.1%
40th percentile
K-BB%9.7%
39th percentile
Velo92.2
82th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 42.0 IP · 207 BF · 788 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.0%
20th percentile
O-Whf%31.9%
21th percentile
Chase%25.2%
18th percentile
Z-Con%90.0%
20th percentile
O-Con%68.1%
21th percentile
SwStr%21.8%
5th percentile
PutAwy%16.0%
41th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.7%
91th percentile
Z-Swg%69.9%
76th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%48.7%
65th percentile
CS%17.8%
22th percentile
F-Str%44.4%
19th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+2.2/+0.9SW+0.2/-2.8CT-2.0/+1.4FFring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.56 ft (±0.10)
Side: -1.65 ft (±0.15)
Extension: 6.54 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
83
45.8
20.5
26.5
0.0
84.5
17.2
45.8
SW
34
26.5
44.1
23.5
0.0
84.4
29.2
35.3
CT
25
28.0
28.0
32.0
0.0
84.3
17.6
56.0
FF
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
83.9
49.5
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
4th pct
Effective mix
2.9
21st pct
Separation
19.1
43rd pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
77th pct
Velo range
9.7 mph
19th pct
SI · SW · CT
2026 season, 779 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CT
171
121
-1.43
-0.07
SI
354
177
-1.44
+0.27
SW
254
142
+0.29
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.11
75th percentile
Where he throws
+0.11
73th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.00
50th percentile
Heart35.8%
+174.27/100
Shadow36.9%
+115.87/100
Chase19.8%
−286.13/100
Waste7.5%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI19.2%+0.47
chase · SI8.2%−0.39
shadow · SI16.1%+0.20
waste · SL4.3%−0.18
shadow · SL12.2%+0.17
11 other locations−0.17
Total+0.11
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.