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CIN · RHP · 2025
43.0 IP · 189 BF · 764 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
116
Stuff+
98th percentile
108
ABStuff+
98th percentile
115
Pitching+
99th percentile
35.4%
K%
97th percentile
8.5%
BB%
51th percentile
3.22
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 189 BF · 764 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+116
98th percentile
ABStuff+108
98th percentile
Whiff%30.2%
90th percentile
CSW%34.4%
59th percentile
Results
Pitching+115
99th percentile
RV/100+0.15
58th percentile
FIP3.22
95th percentile
RA/91.88
88th percentile
GB%37.1%
33th percentile
Command
K%35.4%
97th percentile
BB%8.5%
51th percentile
K-BB%27.0%
95th percentile
Velo95.4
98th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 189 BF · 764 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%17.9%
75th percentile
O-Whf%60.3%
95th percentile
Chase%31.8%
83th percentile
Z-Con%82.1%
75th percentile
O-Con%39.7%
95th percentile
SwStr%28.7%
74th percentile
PutAwy%25.0%
93th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.2%
68th percentile
Z-Swg%71.4%
82th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%52.5%
90th percentile
CS%15.4%
5th percentile
F-Str%53.4%
76th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.4/+2.3SL-1.1/-0.9CH+2.1/-1.7CBSI+2.5/+2.3ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.44 ft (±0.11)
Side: -1.68 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 6.40 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
59
28.8
27.1
32.2
0.0
83.6
35.8
50.8
SL
34
44.1
38.2
14.7
0.0
80.9
6.6
35.3
CH
7
57.1
14.3
14.3
0.0
73.8
12.7
28.6
CB
3
66.7
33.3
0.0
0.0
102.0
4.0
66.7
SI
2
50.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
95.1
23.0
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
6th pct
Effective mix
2.3
9th pct
Separation
19.2
41st pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
44th pct
Velo range
7.8 mph
5th pct
FF · SL · CH
2025 season, 743 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.06
67th percentile
Where he throws
+0.05
66th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.01
58th percentile
Heart32.2%
+148.26/100
Shadow40.5%
+125.76/100
Chase19.0%
−278.14/100
Waste8.4%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB23.8%+0.48
chase · FB7.9%−0.39
shadow · SL14.1%+0.22
waste · FB3.4%−0.20
shadow · FB22.8%+0.18
14 other locations−0.22
Total+0.06
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.