← BackCade Povich
BAL · LHP · 2025
100.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,971 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
94
Stuff+
12th percentile
98
ABStuff+
20th percentile
104
Pitching+
60th percentile
24.1%
K%
67th percentile
8.4%
BB%
52th percentile
4.78
FIP
49th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 100.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,971 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+94
12th percentile
ABStuff+98
20th percentile
Whiff%22.1%
46th percentile
CSW%34.2%
56th percentile
Results
Pitching+104
60th percentile
RV/100-0.92
30th percentile
FIP4.78
49th percentile
RA/94.49
50th percentile
GB%42.3%
54th percentile
Command
K%24.1%
67th percentile
BB%8.4%
52th percentile
K-BB%15.7%
67th percentile
Velo86.8
17th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 100.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,971 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.9%
43th percentile
O-Whf%41.7%
50th percentile
Chase%26.6%
40th percentile
Z-Con%86.1%
43th percentile
O-Con%58.3%
50th percentile
SwStr%27.7%
60th percentile
PutAwy%18.3%
60th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.5%
50th percentile
Z-Swg%62.8%
20th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.9%
25th percentile
CS%22.0%
75th percentile
F-Str%51.1%
59th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.2/-1.1CB-3.7/+0.8CH-2.1/-1.5SI+2.4/-1.1SWSL+5.2/+1.2CTring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.97 ft (±0.10)
Side: 1.78 ft (±0.25)
Extension: 6.19 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
115
21.7
38.3
29.6
0.0
85.5
33.0
52.2
CB
72
65.3
15.3
18.1
0.0
80.4
-11.2
37.5
CH
47
57.4
19.1
17.0
0.0
79.8
6.4
36.2
SI
46
50.0
17.4
30.4
0.0
84.3
15.9
54.3
SW
40
37.5
30.0
22.5
0.0
86.3
19.0
55.0
SL
4
25.0
25.0
25.0
0.0
87.5
25.5
25.0
CT
2
0.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
82.9
22.2
50.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
60th pct
Effective mix
4.5
79th pct
Separation
23.9
88th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
13.4 mph
68th pct
FF · CB · CH · SI · SW
2025 season, 1,904 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.07
37th percentile
Where he throws
−0.06
40th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
45th percentile
Heart31.7%
+148.26/100
Shadow38.9%
+125.76/100
Chase20.3%
−278.14/100
Waste9.2%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB6.0%−0.30
heart · FB14.4%+0.29
waste · CH3.0%−0.14
shadow · FB15.2%+0.12
shadow · CH5.3%+0.11
19 other locations−0.15
Total−0.07
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.