← BackPayton Tolle
BOS · LHP · 2025
15.3 IP · 74 BF · 304 pitches · 2025 season
MED Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
108
ABStuff+
97th percentile
100
Pitching+
26th percentile
25.7%
K%
77th percentile
10.8%
BB%
27th percentile
7.03
FIP
13th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 15.3 IP · 74 BF · 304 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+108
97th percentile
Whiff%27.6%
79th percentile
CSW%29.8%
13th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
26th percentile
RV/100-1.11
25th percentile
FIP7.03
13th percentile
RA/92.35
84th percentile
GB%31.9%
16th percentile
Command
K%25.7%
77th percentile
BB%10.8%
27th percentile
K-BB%14.9%
63th percentile
Velo93.7
93th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 15.3 IP · 74 BF · 304 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%22.1%
92th percentile
O-Whf%55.6%
91th percentile
Chase%20.6%
5th percentile
Z-Con%77.9%
95th percentile
O-Con%44.4%
95th percentile
SwStr%25.0%
25th percentile
PutAwy%17.9%
56th percentile
Approach
Zone%56.9%
95th percentile
Z-Swg%78.6%
98th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%53.6%
93th percentile
CS%12.2%
5th percentile
F-Str%55.4%
88th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+2.2/+1.0CT-0.9/+1.8SLCH-0.6/+4.6CB+1.6/-6.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.55 ft (±0.11)
Side: 2.91 ft (±0.15)
Extension: 7.49 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
32
34.4
28.1
31.2
0.0
80.2
24.6
28.1
SL
7
14.3
28.6
42.9
0.0
87.3
12.4
28.6
CB
3
66.7
0.0
33.3
0.0
92.5
9.4
66.7
CT
3
33.3
33.3
33.3
0.0
88.2
-0.7
100.0
CH
2
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
86.3
17.0
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
60th pct
Effective mix
3.1
34th pct
Separation
15.1
7th pct
Shape scatter
2.5 in
5th pct
Velo range
13.7 mph
71st pct
FF · CT · SL · CH · CB
2025 season, 304 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.07
37th percentile
Where he throws
+0.15
85th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.22
3th percentile
Heart36.5%
+148.26/100
Shadow37.8%
+125.76/100
Chase18.4%
−278.14/100
Waste7.2%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB11.5%−0.57
heart · FB26.0%+0.52
shadow · FB24.3%+0.19
waste · FB2.3%−0.14
waste · CH2.0%−0.09
15 other locations+0.02
Total−0.07
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.